These are not small adjustments. A flight that cost $400 last summer is likely to cost closer to $476 or more this season. International round trips that averaged $774 in February 2026 are now averaging $1,097, not including bags, seats, or any add-ons.
The root cause is jet fuel, and the root cause of the jet fuel crisis is the Iran war. When the conflict began in early 2026, it immediately disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply flows. The disruption sent oil prices spiking almost overnight, and jet fuel followed.
Jet fuel has risen from $2.50 per gallon in late February 2026 to $4.56 per gallon by May, an increase of over 82% in under three months. For context, fuel is the single largest operating cost for any airline, often accounting for 20 to 30 percent of total expenses. A long-haul flight that cost an airline $20,000 in fuel a few months ago can now cost over $36,000 for the exact same journey.
U.S. airlines alone have reported that the Iran war is adding more than $6 billion in extra costs to their operations this year. Canadian carriers face the same pressure. The result is higher fares, new fuel surcharges, and fewer available flights, all at the same time.
Air Canada has responded to the fuel crisis in two ways: raising base fares and adding direct fuel surcharges on specific routes.
For flights to sun destinations including Mexico, the Caribbean, and U.S. vacation spots, Air Canada has added a $50 CAD fuel surcharge per passenger, tacked on to the taxes and fees portion of the ticket. This means what looks like a $499 fare to Cancun is actually $549 before you've paid for a single bag.
Air Canada has also reduced capacity on several routes, particularly between Toronto, Montreal, and New York, in response to the elevated fuel costs. Fewer available seats on high-demand routes naturally pushes prices higher.
WestJet introduced a $60 CAD fuel surcharge on companion voucher bookings starting April 8, 2026, catching many loyalty members off guard when they went to redeem their annual companion passes.
WestJet has also made significant cuts to its flight schedule. The airline reduced capacity by 1% in April, 3% in May, and is planning a 6% reduction in June, right at the peak of summer travel season. For Canadian travellers heading to popular summer destinations, this means fewer flights to choose from and higher prices on the flights that remain.
| Route Type | Average Fare: January 2026 | Average Fare: May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Domestic | $227 CAD | $385 CAD | +70% |
| Canada to U.S. | ~$335 USD | ~$361 USD | +8% |
| International Round Trip | $774 USD | $1,097 USD | +42% |
| Domestic U.S. Economy | ~$470 USD | ~$570 USD | +21% |
This is the question every traveller is asking, and the honest answer is: probably not soon, and maybe not fully.
Experts and airline executives have warned that even if jet fuel prices begin to ease, airlines are unlikely to lower fares proportionally. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has confirmed the carrier raised fares by 15 to 20%, and CNN Business reported that airlines are actively trying to make their fare increases stick even when fuel costs begin to decline.
This is a pattern that has played out before. Airlines use fuel price spikes to reset their fare baselines to higher levels, and competition alone is rarely enough to bring them back down quickly, especially now that Spirit Airlines, one of the most aggressive price-cutters in the market, has permanently shut down.
The most realistic outlook for Canadian travellers is that fares will remain elevated through the summer of 2026, may ease slightly in the fall shoulder season, but are unlikely to return to pre-2026 levels anytime soon.
Book summer flights immediately. Experts across the board are advising travellers to book now rather than wait. Every week of delay risks higher prices as airlines push fares up heading into peak season.
Fly mid-week. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday flights are consistently cheaper than weekend departures. Even in a high-price environment, mid-week fares can be 15 to 25% lower.
Consider shoulder season travel. September and October offer significantly lower fares than July and August, with the same destinations at a fraction of the summer premium.
Use points and miles now. If you have Aeroplan, WestJet Dollars, or credit card travel points, this is an excellent time to redeem them. Award ticket pricing often doesn't spike the same way cash fares do.
Watch for fuel surcharge transparency. When comparing fares, always check the taxes and fees breakdown. Air Canada's $50 sun destination surcharge and WestJet's $60 companion voucher surcharge may not be obvious until checkout. And before you book, use the GateGuard baggage fee calculator to factor in your bag costs — they add up fast in 2026.
Set fare alerts. Google Flights, Hopper, and Kayak all offer price alerts. Set them for your target route and snap up any dip in pricing as soon as it appears. Prices are volatile right now and can move quickly in both directions.
Compare nearby airports. Flying from Hamilton, Buffalo, or Plattsburgh instead of Toronto Pearson can still produce meaningful savings on some routes, even with fewer budget options available since Spirit's closure.
Flying in 2026 costs more than it did a year ago, significantly more for international routes, noticeably more for domestic Canadian travel. The Iran war created a fuel crisis that airlines have passed on to passengers in the form of higher base fares, new surcharges, fewer available flights, and rising baggage fees all at once.
The best thing Canadian travellers can do right now is act rather than wait. Book summer travel as soon as possible, use points and miles where you have them, and go in with full awareness of the surcharges that may not be obvious until checkout.
Flying is more expensive in 2026. But knowing what you are paying for and why puts you in a better position to make smart decisions with your travel budget.
With baggage fees also rising in 2026, make sure you know exactly what you will pay before you get to the airport.
Calculate Your Baggage Fees Free at GateGuard.travel